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Incredible stats on short-priced favs

ELITE INCREDIBLE became the fifth $7 chance beaten in the 2019 Singapore racing season last Sunday at Kranji, and the data sample reads scarily for the shorties as we venture into the latter half of the racing calendar.

This year has yielded 10 horses with a starting price of $7 so far, five of which have have won for a 50 per cent winning strike rate. However, if a $7 chance has an implied probability of winning 71.4 per cent of the time, then it appears as though the market is overestimating their chances.

That 50 per cent winning strike rate, however, is on par with last season, with a total of 16 horses whose starting price was $7, eight of which got the job done.

So far for 2019 there have been just two $6 horses go around – IN THE BLACK and ARAMCO. The former finished stone motherless last while the latter saluted the judge.

Punters, however, didn’t miss in 2018, with a total of four runners sent around at the long odds on quote of $6, all of whom checked home in first place.

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