One of Australia’s top domestic and international racing form analysts says Romantic Warrior’s Cox Plate rivals “will be in deep trouble” later this month if the Hong Kong horse wins the Group One Turnbull Stakes (2,000m) at Flemington on Saturday.
Simon Dinopoulos, a senior handicapper at Canberra-based Racing and Sports, believes Romantic Warrior does not represent a value betting proposition in his initial race on Australian soil this weekend but that Australasia’s weight-for-age championship race at Moonee Valley on October 28 will be his to lose if he crosses the Flemington finish line first.
Even though Romantic Warrior boasts impeccable fresh form – he has won both of his first-up assignments and never experienced defeat when more than two months between runs – and his Racing and Sports rating of 125 ranks him among the equine elite, Dinopoulos thinks he may require his A-game to beat battle-hardened galloper Osipenko on Saturday when his main objective is three weeks down the track.
“Romantic Warrior is top shelf – he’s one of the best horses in the world – and it’s easy for Racing and Sports to compare him with Australia’s gallopers because he took care of Dubai Honour at Sha Tin soon after Dubai Honour took care of our champion at the time, Anamoe, at Randwick,” Dinopoulos said.
“If we were predicting him to run to his 125 rating in the Turnbull Stakes, he’d deserve to be odds on. But we can’t bet the numbers straight off the page because we’re not expecting him to be at his peak.
“Osipenko, Romantic Warrior’s main danger, boasts a personal-best 120 rating, carries three kilos less than him because of the Turnbull Stakes conditions, and hits the race fourth up instead of first up.
“We’ve been waiting for Osipenko to get to 2,000m this preparation. We’re expecting him to run up to his peak performance. That being the case, Romantic Warrior can’t afford to be too far off his game.
“However, Romantic Warrior is unlikely to be close to his peak this weekend because all the talk out of the stable is he’s going to improve towards the Cox Plate. If Romantic Warrior wins on Saturday, his rivals for the Cox Plate will be in deep trouble.
“If Romantic Warrior runs to 125 on Cox Plate Day, all the horses people are throwing up as Cox Plate contenders would have to do something they’ve never done to beat him. That’s why he’s such a likely winner of that race – he’s done it.
“Mr Brightside would be flying the Australian flag. He’s rated 125 – the same as Romantic Warrior – but he’s not run to that figure beyond a mile. And the other international horses don’t possess the same level of form as Romantic Warrior does.”
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