Davis Files : Happy Valley Preview - 24th February 2021
#5 Wonder Win delivered a strong closing victory back in December this course and distance and has performed honestly since.Derek Leung who was atop when he won had legitimate reasons why he couldn't take the ride at his subsequent starts, but importantly he's back a board tonight. Barrier seven can be a prickly gate to exit from generally but with a decent run to the first turn he should settle mid field with cover. His recent track work is good and you can expect another solid performance.
#2 Great Smart has already won over this course and distance and been placed this season with both runs full of merit. He pulled up with blood in the trachea two starts back and was slow to jump last outing which cost him a position in running. Drawn in gate eight he'll need favours early to find a good position with cover but he's racing well.
#1 Good Days finds himself in class 5 for the first time at start forty seven. He's in this grade because he's lost all form over the last eighteen months and his rating has dropped to an all time low. The good draw, booking of Moreira plus the offering of the easiest opposition ever faced shall certainly attract plenty to his camp. His last run was slightly better so perhaps he's about to run himself back in to form following a heart irregularity in October. He's a chance but a likely skinny price and common overall form line don't overly excite me.
#6 Shinealot has been the beaten favourite two of his past three and incredibly started a 31/1 shot the race in between. He's still branded with maiden status from twenty three starts but has placed on every track and surface. He was good last run over 2200m and with Purton on from a nice draw, plus the blinkers, he's gifted another winning opportunity.
#3 Sangria makes his debut in class 5 company at the Valley with his two previous runs in this grade at Shatin. His only win was here over 1800m back in January 2018 off a rating of fifty six. He's a get back run on type that's for a third time accompanied by Blake Shinn. He'll need speed on from a fairway out but he's going well enough to feature.
Selections : 5,2,1,6,3
R2 - 2,5,6,12,11
R3 - 9,8,7,3,2
R4 - 1,2,9,6,7
#2 My My My made an extremely encouraging debut at the valley when beaten a neck by a horse that's won eight races over the 1000m, in Moment of Power. His preparation leading in to that debut was very encouraging with a nice competitive trial. He looked well educated out the gates and handled the track particularly well running straight as a gun barrel. With the advantage of barrier one and now race experience a similar return or better would see him go pretty close.
#3 Harmony Fire made his debut in the same race and is another to show encouraging signs from just the one start. The 3yo son of Brazen Beau began a little awkwardly from the stalls before settling deep and close to the speed. He thereafter produced the fastest closing 400m of the race to be beaten less than a length. Vincent Ho takes over from aprentice Jerry Chau so he'll be worse off at the weights. The draw also looks poor on paper but it may conversely assist a young horse looking for galloping room. He's got a future and if unimpeded down the stretch can give these a real scare at value.
#8 Fortune Carrier is fitter for two runs at 1200m and has again trialled well leading in to tonight's assignment. Zac Purton continues spending time with this athletic 3yo in the hope he can perform to his potential shown in the mornings. The drop back to 1000m looks perfect and the barrier suggests he'll be right there from the jump. If he doesn't find the line well tonight the jury is out.
#12 Oversubscribe has been racing well all season and was rewarded with a win in class 5 last start. He's struggled to secure a win in class 4 to this point but does have race fitness and experience over most. He's drawn awkwardly in eight but did win from gate seven last start and there's an abundance of speed to sit behind.
#5 Towards Success is on debut and the son of Sepoy's had seven Hong Kong trials in total, including one at Happy Valley. Alexis Badel was aboard that morning when he showed speed and fluency to finish a close up third. What he's got to offer under serious race pressure shall be answered tonight but Im sitting on the fence.
Selections : 2,3,8,12,5
R6 - 3,5,4,1,2
R7 - 11,10,3,2,6
R8 - 7,1,3,4,8
R9 - 11,3,2,6,1
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